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Race for Two: Warren Surges, Biden Declines

Amidst the backdrop of President Donald Trump's latest scandal in which he encouraged the Ukrainian government to investigate former Vice-President Joe Biden in an attempt to seemingly damage his potential opponent in next year's Presidential election, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has been surging in the Democratic Party Primary according to a slew of recent polls.

As accumulated by RealClearPolitics, Warren has made serious inroads across the board in early states: 
  • Iowa Caucuses (vote on February 3rd, 41 delegates at stake, DM Register/CNN): Warren - 22%, Biden - 20%, Sanders - 11%, Buttigieg - 9%, Harris - 6%. 
  • New Hampshire Primary (vote on February 11th, 24 delegates at stake, Monmouth): Warren - 27%, Biden - 25%, Sanders - 12%, Buttigieg - 10%, Harris - 3%. 
  • Nevada Caucuses (vote on February 22nd, 36 delegates at stake, CNN): Biden - 22%, Sanders - 22%, Warren - 18%, Harris - 5%, Buttigieg - 4%. 
  • South Carolina Primary (vote on February 29th, 54 delegates at stake, CNN): Biden - 37%, Warren - 16%, Sanders - 11%, Buttigieg - 4%, Harris - 3%. 
Although Warren has not taken command of the race by any means, she has built a strong following in Iowa and New Hampshire - to the detriment of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders - whilst inching within the margin of error in Nevada. However, Biden's South Carolina firewall remains intact, for the time being. 

Interestingly, despite the varied field and the crowded debate stage, the Democratic Party's "top five" remain fairly consistent in early states. Sanders is struggling to retain his front runner status while Harris barely remains in the "top five," and Buttigieg is stubbornly kicking around as a quasi top-tier candidate in limbo. 

Warren, however, has seen her presidential aspirations boom in recent weeks as she has become the strongest competitor to challenge Biden's front runner status to date.

 How the recent Ukraine scandal impacts the primary battle will be intriguing to observe, as it anecdotally feeds the Biden narrative of electability. Stay tuned.

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